A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
